Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：牌价)

• ·fubt交易所
• ·zec钱包收成情况
• ·btm需要多少才能交易
• ·红双喜烟多少钱-红双喜烟多少钱一盒
• ·律师事务所的会计如何做分录
• ·刘聪聪：消费需求迭代时 酒店进社区是很好的选择 | 商业快讯
• ·辅助生产车间人员工资计入什么科目
• ·10月31日华泰紫金泰盈混合C净值下跌0.91%，近1个月累计下跌4.35%
• ·小赢卡贷一般怎么获取征信啊？在上面如何查询征信啊？
• ·梦网科技发生1笔大宗交易，折价率为3.02%
• ·美国众议院计划出售联邦土地为减税筹款
• ·香港金融管理局：9月份港元货币供应量M2及M3均上升0.9%
• ·UniLend Finance (UFT) 如果购买？上线了哪些交易所？
• ·石英股份(603688.SH)：第五期员工持股计划累计买入34.6万股
• ·360借条会不会上征信，有人清楚情况吗？
• ·“三维数字孪生智慧农业系统”项目获企业组三等奖丨对话第九届“创客中国”视觉智能专题赛获奖企业智爱益农